Magnitude of the Change
“For the first 50 years of AI research, no one even considered the possibility of us succeeding. People worked on creating AI without ever asking
what happens if I create real human-level AI.”
Roman Yampolskiy
The gap between how most people are using AI and
what AI is presently capable of is immense.”
OpenAI
“As we move toward superintelligence, incremental policy updates won’t be enough.”
OpenAI
AGI
Extrapolating scaling and growth trends from the past decade leads to forecasts for the next decade that sound like science-fiction. As frontier models continue to improve and become capable of solving more and more cognitive tasks that used to be reserved for humans. the long-standing goal of creating artificial general intelligence (AGI) may come into reach for our generation, perhaps within the next decade or less.
Suppose that by the time human-level AGI is available, base model progress plateaus but effective compute continues to grow at 10× for a bit longer. Even if AGI were initially expensive to run, and only 1000 instances could be run, after a year it would be 10, 000, and after five years it would be 100 million instances; or 1 million instances a hundred times faster.
Tim Genewein et al, Google Deep Mind
Eddie Wu, CEO, Alibaba Group
“Achieving AGI, an intelligent system with human-level general cognitive abilities, now appears to be a certainty.”
Eddie Wu, CEO, Alibaba
“My prediction is by the end of 2028, it’s more likely than not that we have an AI system where you would be able to say to it: ‘Make a better version of yourself.’”
Jack Clark, co-founder, Anthropic
ASI
“AGI is not AI’s endpoint, but a new beginning. AI will not stop at AGI; it will advance toward artificial superintelligence.”
Eddie Wu, CEO, Alibaba Group
After characterizing ASI, the report discusses four potential pathways from AGI to ASI: scaling AGI, AI paradigm shifts, recursive improvement, and ASI emerging from large-scale multi-agent collectives.
Tim Genewein et al, Google Deep Mind
Eddie Wu, CEO, Alibaba Group
Non-Human Intelligence
“The demand for intelligence is almost infinite. “
Brian Armstrong, CEO Coinbase
“Every company will be powered by AI.
Every country will have artificial intelligence that supports its
society.”
Jensen Huang, CEO, NVIDIA
Infrastructure
“We now have a new industry, an AI industry, and it's now part of
the new infrastructure, called intelligence infrastructure,
that will be used by every country, every society.”
Jensen Huang, CEO, NVIDIA
“AI is entering a new era, and the countries that build the infrastructure for this transformation will shape the future of technology, industry and society.”
Speaker: Masayoshi Son, founder, chairman and CEO, SoftBank Group.
The AI Economy
“The AI economy will eventually be bigger than the human economy.”
Brian Armstrong, CEO Coinbase
“Once you can give AI agents the ability to transact, you enable the machine-to-machine economy, which is going to be millions of times bigger than the human-to-human economy.” – - Salim Ismail
Access
The fight to ensure intelligence access for all of us matters a lot. If the future is the intelligence economy, we all need access to these models. It's a big, big deal, and we should be asking for that access — we should be demanding that access. I don't think it's fair or right for only large corporations to have access to frontier models like this. I think all of us deserve it.
Nate Jones
AI Agents
“We are standing at the threshold of an AGI inflection point. Billions of AI agents are poised