Rewired Realities: AI, (Political) Power Shifts, and Emerging Conflict
AGI will likely take a few+ more years, and it will take a few+ years to fully implement Project 2025. We are likely to see a timeline alignment of both as well as disruptions that follow.
TL;DR
No matter where one stands on Trump’s return or AI’s advancement, both will trigger seismic domestic and geopolitical change.
Significant change is often a key ingredient of conflict.
Thought exercise: Imagine significant portions of Project 2025 are implemented in a world that approaches or reaches AGI. Will society be able to handle that much change?
When multiple factors converge—such as rapid economic restructuring, power centralization, power redistribution, changes in norms, the redefinition of what it means to be human, and the identification of God-like leaders with a mandate to create a new world—the likelihood of conflict increases significantly.
___
Introduction
The concurrent emergence of AI technology and the political shifts under Trump each represent a transformative force in domestic and global affairs. While society might manage to adapt to either development in isolation, their simultaneous impact poses unprecedented challenges. Given today's nuclear context, these combined disruptions could have existential implications
Setting aside good/bad debates about AI and Trump, let's examine six interconnected changes poised to fundamentally alter our society.
1-Unpredictability
Trump and AI are producing massive uncertainty.
Trump
Trump will follow through on many of his campaign promises, especially those related to greater restrictions on immigration, widespread deportation, and pardoning those involved in January 6th activities for which they were convicted of crimes. This creates a lot of uncertainty for many. Will families be deported? Will parents be separated from their kids?
Will Trump reclassify many civil servants to Schedule F employees, making them at-will employees? Will conservative Republicans succeed in abolishing the Department of Education? Will fewer education dollars flow to public schools? Will Musk succeed in his push to abolish the Fed. Economic uncertainty reigns for many with a federal paycheck or a paycheck that depends on federal funds.
And what about changes in public health?
In the area of foreign policy, we are facing many unpredictable changes. He may put a 60% tariff on goods from China, or he may not. [He’s also promised a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and a 10% tariff on all overseas goods.] Are consumers ready for the price increases? Relations between the world’s two largest economies are now on edge, and this will impact all of us in unpredictable ways that extend the consequences of tariffs.
While Trump’s likely to reverse any climate commitments, he may stay in NATO or leave, he may abandon the Ukraine or defend it. Trump's skeptical stance toward NATO and his "America First" approach could weaken traditional alliances, potentially creating a power vacuum that Russia and China could exploit. His stated intention to quickly end the Ukraine war, combined with reduced support for NATO, could strengthen Russia's position in Europe.
This realignment, combined with a conflict with China, could accelerate the transition toward a more multipolar world order, with traditional U.S. allies potentially seeking alternative security arrangements or increased strategic autonomy. The European Union, in particular, might be forced to develop independent defense capabilities and diplomatic positions, especially regarding Russia and China. US allies, such as Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, now uncertain of continued US protection, may seek nuclear weapons. This could set-off arms races in conflicts in regions the US exports goods.
AI
The rapid advancement of AI is also generating profound uncertainty, with experts and institutions offering widely divergent predictions about its impact.
In the realm of employment, estimates vary dramatically, with predictions ranging from anywhere from 10-80% of people losing jobs to AI. Even AI optimists such as Yann LeCun agree the government will need to expand social supports in the transition to a more utopian AI world. Is a government looking to reduce social spending ready to fund these needed supports?
The military applications of AI present equally significant uncertainties. Questions regarding how AI will integrate with existing weapons systems, the potential emergence of unprecedented "hyperwar" scenarios featuring machine-speed decision-making, and the unpredictable interactions between opposing AI systems in combat situations. Are tanks and land armies obsolete? Eric Schmidt has been making the case that they are. How will military planners adjust? The development of autonomous weapons systems, AI-enhanced surveillance capabilities, and cyber operations introduces unpredictable elements into military strategy. The concept of an "AI arms race" raises concerns about unintended escalation and the potential loss of human control in military decision-making
The proliferation of deepfake technology represents another area of significant uncertainty. With deepfakes reportedly doubling every six months, the scope and impact of this technology remain difficult to quantify. The economic implications are substantial, with fake news alone estimated to cost the global economy $78 billion in 2020. The full extent of deepfake's potential impact on society, politics, and security remains largely unknown.
Aggravation
The rapid advancement of AI is poised to create an unprecedented crisis in developing nations, where automation threatens to displace workers across multiple sectors without the cushioning effect of robust social safety nets. This technological disruption particularly threatens the traditional development pathway through labor-intensive manufacturing, potentially stranding millions of workers without viable alternative employment options.
Unlike developed economies that can potentially implement universal basic income or comprehensive retraining programs, developing countries lack both the financial resources and institutional capacity to support displaced workers, with their social safety spending averaging just 1.6% of GDP compared to 21% in OECD nations.
This employment crisis is likely to trigger substantial migration pressures precisely when developed nations, particularly the United States, are implementing stricter immigration controls and border enforcement measures. The confluence of AI-driven job displacement in both origin and destination countries creates a perfect storm, where increased migration pressure meets heightened resistance from destination countries experiencing their own AI-related employment challenges. This dynamic is already visible in current immigration policies, where economic anxieties about domestic job markets fuel support for more restrictive measures, creating a feedback loop that could exacerbate global inequality and potentially lead to humanitarian crises in regions lacking the resources to adapt to rapid technological change and setting the stage for violent border clashes.
2-Power Centralization
The Trump presidency and the advent of AI could easily produce a massive concentration of power.
Trump
The consolidation of power under Trump's second presidency is set to be unprecedented.
With Republicans holding the Senate majority, likely maintaining House control, traditional checks and balances face significant weakening. In this world, Trump can see Congress as a rubber stamp rather than a separate branch of government. Democratic infighting will make any resistance even more difficult.
The Supreme Court's recent landmark ruling on presidential immunity also marks a watershed moment in American constitutional law, establishing unprecedented protections for presidents' official actions while in office. The 6-3 decision creates two distinct tiers of protection: absolute immunity for core constitutional duties and presumptive immunity for general official acts. This means presidents cannot be prosecuted for actions like issuing pardons, vetoing legislation, or exercising Department of Justice authority when these actions fall within their official duties. Beyond this specific decision, the Court has a conservative 6-3 Supreme Court majority that includes three Trump appointees
This unified control provides Trump with unprecedented leverage to implement his agenda without substantial opposition.
Trump's approach to executive power has already demonstrated his willingness to push constitutional boundaries and norms, as evidenced by his push for recess appointments. His previous administration frequently bypassed Congress through executive orders on issues ranging from environmental regulations to healthcare policy, and he has explicitly stated plans to expand presidential authority even further in his second term. This includes reviving presidential "impoundment" powers over spending and implementing sweeping policy changes through executive action on his first day in office. His campaign has outlined plans for dramatic government reformation, including extensive deportation programs, radical changes to trade policy, and significant alterations to federal spending, and even “shatter taboos on the use of forces on US soil” to support deportation and maybe even against US citizens.
AI
The development of AI is creating an unprecedented concentration of economic power and wealth, with projections indicating AI could generate between $24 trillion in annual economic impact through efficiency gains and productivity improvements. However, these massive financial benefits are primarily flowing to those who already control significant capital and technological resources. Major financial institutions predict AI could double annual economic growth rates in developed economies, adding an estimated $8.3 trillion to the U.S. economy alone, but this wealth creation is occurring in a highly unequal manner that reinforces existing disparities.
The inequality is further exacerbated by a growing skills and access gap in AI technology and education. The World Economic Forum projects a 41% growth in demand for analytical thinking and innovative skills, but access to the necessary technical education remains highly uneven, and many schools are ignoring the change in needed skills. As AI continues to advance, those without access to quality education face increasing barriers to economic opportunity, potentially cementing a permanent underclass in the AI-driven economy.
This technological transformation is creating a dangerous feedback loop where economic inequality corrodes democratic institutions through enhanced elite influence, rising populism, and weakened ability to implement redistributive policies, further enabling the concentration of wealth and power.
Governments worldwide are increasingly deploying AI-powered surveillance systems, including facial recognition networks and predictive policing algorithms, to monitor citizens' activities and behaviors. This technological capability, combined with vast data collection networks, enables unprecedented levels of population control and social monitoring.
Integrating AI into governance structures is particularly concerning as it enables automated decision-making systems that can process massive amounts of personal data without transparency or accountability, effectively creating a digital panopticon where citizens modify their behavior under the assumption of constant surveillance. This technological infrastructure, once established, proves remarkably resistant to democratic oversight or dismantling as it becomes deeply embedded in administrative and security frameworks. The result is a gradual erosion of civil liberties and democratic norms as the power asymmetry between state and citizen grows ever wider, facilitated by AI systems that can track, analyze, and predict human behavior with increasing accuracy.
Aggravation
Economic instability + threats triggered by AI (cyber attacks, biological weapons spread) could create pressure for centralization of government power.
3-Power Shifts
Trump
American politics is set for a dramatic transformation under a potential second Trump presidency, characterized by unprecedented expansion of executive authority and fundamental shifts in institutional power dynamics. The anticipated changes include a more assertive interpretation of Article II powers, the dismantling of traditional Justice Department independence, and significant restructuring of the federal bureaucracy.
As noted above, these shifts would be facilitated by a combination of Supreme Court decisions providing broader executive immunity, Republican Senate support for appointments, and weakened institutional safeguards that previously constrained presidential authority.
Simultaneously, a notable devolution of federal power to state governments is reshaping American federalism, with states assuming greater control over crucial policy areas including abortion rights, gun control, marijuana regulation, and education policy.
Parallel to these governmental shifts, there is a significant trend toward privatization of traditional government functions, fundamentally altering how public services are delivered to Americans. This privatization wave encompasses various sectors including healthcare, transportation, public safety, and utilities, driven by goals of improved efficiency and reduced federal deficits.
Together, these three major shifts - expanded executive authority, state empowerment, and privatization - represent a fundamental restructuring of American governance that could permanently alter the relationship between citizens and their government at all levels.
These changes highlight how politics ultimately centers on disputes over resource control and allocation. The shifts create winners and losers regarding access to services and funding, generating conflicts between federal and state authorities, between different states, and between public and private interests. Key political battles emerge over fundamental questions like who should control public money, how limited resources should be distributed, what role government versus private sector should play in providing services, and how to balance efficiency with equity in resource allocation.
AI
The development and deployment of AI systems is creating significant power shifts both within and between nations, corporations, and governments. At the corporate level, AI capabilities are concentrating unprecedented wealth and influence in a handful of major tech companies that have the massive computing resources, data, and technical talent needed for advanced AI development. This creates a form of "AI capitalism" where these companies gain increasing control over digital infrastructure, information flows, and economic opportunities.
Geopolitically, countries are experiencing power shifts based on their AI development approaches and capabilities. Nations like Saudi Arabia, with significant financial resources and fewer regulatory constraints, are able to pursue AI development and deployment aggressively. This contrasts with regions like Europe that have prioritized ethical frameworks and regulatory limits, potentially falling behind in AI capabilities and economic benefits. Meanwhile, governments that master AI systems gain enhanced abilities to shape public opinion through sophisticated content generation and targeted messaging. This includes democratic and authoritarian governments using LLMs to influence narratives, potentially undermining democratic discourse.
Additional power shifts include:
Military advantages for nations with advanced AI capabilities
Economic disruption as AI automation displaces workers and concentrates wealth
Educational divides between those with vs without access to AI tools and training needed to adapt to an AI World.
Rural-urban divides as AI jobs and infrastructure cluster in major cities
Generational gaps between AI-native youth and older populations
Power shifts from human experts to AI systems in fields like medicine and law, as AI systems may start to offer better diagnoses and legal advice.
Changes in bargaining power between workers and employers as striking workers can be replaced by AI systems.
Aggravation
The integration of AI into government operations represents a transformative shift in public administration, enabling states to maintain and even expand their capabilities while significantly reducing their workforce. AI systems can automate up to 30% of government tasks within the next five to seven years, handling everything from benefits distribution and claims processing to document management and citizen services through sophisticated natural language processing and robotic process automation. This automation extends beyond basic administrative tasks to include complex functions like financial oversight, fraud detection, and policy implementation, allowing governments to operate with unprecedented efficiency and reduced personnel costs.
The true power multiplication effect comes from combining administrative automation with AI-powered surveillance capabilities, which are already deployed in 75 countries worldwide. These systems, incorporating facial recognition, predictive policing, and smart city platforms, enable governments to maintain comprehensive monitoring and control mechanisms with minimal human intervention. The mere presence of these surveillance systems acts as a "digital scarecrow," deterring civil disobedience and allowing states to maintain social control with reduced security personnel. This technological convergence enables governments to process vast amounts of citizen data, predict and prevent unrest, and project power more effectively while operating with a smaller workforce, fundamentally altering the relationship between state capacity and personnel requirements.
4-Changes in Norms
Trump
The transformation of societal norms in recent years has been particularly evident in the realm of political discourse and public behavior, marking a significant departure from previously established standards of civility and respect. This shift became notably apparent during Trump's presidency, where traditional expectations of conventional presidential dignity and diplomatic language were dramatically altered.
A pivotal moment occurred when Trump's characterization of Mexican immigrants as "rapists" and criminals introduced a new paradigm in acceptable public discourse about ethnic groups, fundamentally changing how political figures could speak about minority communities.
The impact of these changes manifested dramatically during a 2019 Florida rally, where an attendee's violent suggestion to "shoot them" in reference to migrants was met with presidential humor rather than condemnation, and the crowd's subsequent laughter and cheers highlighted how previously unthinkable expressions of violence had become normalized in political settings.
This shift in acceptable discourse had far-reaching consequences, leading to changes in public attitudes toward immigrants and Mexican Americans.
Then there are changes in norms that can be fairly or unfairly attributed to Trump and his influence. Regardless of the accuracy of the attribution, they are part of our new world, and they are things we can’t imagine being said (or posted) a decade ago.
AI
AI is fundamentally reshaping our understanding of privacy in the digital age. As AI systems process vast amounts of personal data to improve their performance and service their customers, traditional concepts of individual privacy are being challenged. These systems can now piece together detailed profiles of individuals from millions of seemingly innocuous data points, raising questions about informed consent and data ownership. What was once considered non-sensitive information can now be used by AI to infer highly personal details about individuals' health, preferences, and behaviors. This has led to a growing tension between the technical capabilities of AI systems and society's expectations of personal privacy.
The notion of privacy as a fundamental human right is, in historical terms, a relatively recent development that emerged primarily in the modern era. As AI technology continues to advance, we may be witnessing not just the evolution of privacy norms but potentially their dissolution. Young generations, raised in an environment of ubiquitous data sharing and digital surveillance, often demonstrate markedly different attitudes toward privacy than their predecessors. This shift, combined with the increasing economic and social benefits of data sharing, suggests that our current conception of privacy might be a historical anomaly rather than a permanent feature of human society.
The rise of AI is also disrupting established intellectual property frameworks. The ability of AI models to be trained on vast collections of copyrighted works, from books and articles to artwork and code, has sparked intense debate about fair use and appropriate compensation for creators. The emergence of AI-generated content further complicates matters, raising novel questions about authorship and ownership rights. Who owns the copyright to an AI-generated image that was trained on thousands of human-created artworks? Should original creators be compensated when their works are used to train AI systems? These questions are forcing legal systems and society at large to reconsider fundamental concepts of creativity, originality, and intellectual property rights in an AI-driven world.
Of course, AI has the potential to amplify/echo all of the changing norms identified above.
5-Questions of Identity
Trump (Times)
Fairly attributed to Trump or not, contemporary American society is experiencing significant tensions and transformations around questions of identity, and these are part of our era.
The rise of masculinity-focused movements exemplifies this trend, with groups like the Proud Boys gaining prominence while promoting "Western chauvinism" and traditional masculine ideals.
The broader "manosphere" online ecosystem encompasses various communities focused on masculinity, dating, and gender roles. Public intellectuals like Jordan Peterson have found large audiences discussing masculinity, responsibility, and social order. Some claim that Trump’s son, Barron Trump, connected his father to this space.
Many men report feeling displaced by changing economic and social conditions, leading to responses ranging from self-improvement-focused groups to more extreme movements.
This is starting to have fallout that schools have to manage.
Referencing the Fuentes post above, someone posted on Facebook about boys in a school repeating Fuente’s line in class. Two comments —
Racial and ethnic identity remains a central point of social discourse, with ongoing debates about Critical Race Theory in schools and institutions, as well as broader discussions around systemic racism, privilege, and equity. This has manifested in both the growth of multicultural celebration and white identity movements, alongside contentious debates about immigration policy and national identity. Gender and sexuality have become another crucial battlefield, with intense debates surrounding transgender rights, particularly in sports and healthcare. The growing visibility of non-binary and gender non-conforming identities has been met with pushback through "anti-woke" movements and legislation, while workplace norms continue to evolve around gender and relationships in the wake of the #MeToo movement.
Political identity has become increasingly central to many Americans' self-conception, marked by deepening polarization and partisan sorting. Identity-based political movements have grown on both the left and right while debates rage over "cancel culture" versus accountability. Social media platforms have played a significant role in shaping these dynamics, serving as both a catalyst for identity formation and a driver of political and social tribalism. These various identity-based tensions and movements continue to reshape American social and political life in profound ways.
AI
AI advances have begun to challenge fundamental assumptions about human uniqueness and identity. For millennia, humans have defined themselves largely through their superior intelligence—our very species name, Homo sapiens, means "wise human."
This existential questioning has become more acute as AI moves beyond purely computational tasks into traditionally human realms of emotional and social interaction. The growing popularity of AI chatbots as therapeutic companions and confidants, like Replika or various mental health apps, raises complex questions about the nature of human connection and authenticity. People are forming deep emotional bonds with these AI systems, even while knowing they're not humans, suggesting our concepts of meaningful relationships may need to evolve. The fact that many users report feeling better understood by AI than by fellow humans adds another layer of complexity.
The emergence of AI caregivers represents perhaps the most profound challenge to human identity and social roles. AI systems are increasingly being deployed in nursing homes, childcare centers, and home care settings, performing tasks that have traditionally been seen as requiring uniquely human qualities of empathy and nurturing. In Japan, where demographic challenges have accelerated this trend, robotic companions provide social interaction and basic care for the elderly. This development raises profound questions about the nature of care itself - can a machine truly "care" for someone?
The workplace has become another frontier of this identity crisis as AI begins to automate not just manual labor but creative and intellectual work as well. Professionals in fields from law to medicine to creative arts are grappling with questions of their value and purpose as AI systems become increasingly capable in their domains. Recently, in a world-first, a portrait of Alan Turing painted by “robot artist” Ai-Da went for over $1M at a Sotheby’s auction last week.
More fundamentally, AI is forcing us to reconsider what aspects of human experience and consciousness are truly unique. As AI systems display increasingly sophisticated abilities in areas like pattern recognition, language understanding, and even forms of reasoning, we must grapple with deeper questions about consciousness, free will, and the nature of intelligence itself. The traditional markers we've used to distinguish human intelligence—like creativity, emotional understanding, or complex problem-solving—are no longer clearly exclusive to biological minds.
5- Driven Leaders with (Arguably) Large Mandates
Trump
While popular vote was close, and no swing state was won by a massive margin, many see Trump’s mandate as large.
He’s only the second President in history to win non-consecutive terms. The other was Grover Cleveland, the namesake of my neighborhood childhood school.
[This is my former neighbourhood elementary school. Although I did not attend the school, I often played on its fields and lots. Life was much simpler then.]
He survived two assassination attempts, one narrowly. People have argued God intervened so that he could save America, with House Speaker Mike Johnson drawing parallels to George Washington's survival of a gunfire ambush in Pennsylvania in 1755. Rep. Carlos Antonio Giménez cited "the grace of God.” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise described the event as miraculous.
One editorial recently argued that Trump needs to win World War III. A lot can be justified to win such a large war, and the courts defer to Presidents even more in wartime.
AI
The modern prophets of AI have emerged as luminous figures, each casting their own golden vision of humanity's AI-driven future through powerful manifestos.
Dario Amodei, Anthropic's CEO, recently unveiled a sweeping 15,000-word vision — “Machines of Loving Grace” — predicting AI systems surpassing Nobel laureates by 2026, promising doubled human lifespans and solutions to global challenges like climate change
Sam Altman, OpenAI's visionary leader, has proclaimed the dawn of an "Intelligence Age," emphasizing AI's potential to unlock capabilities that would seem magical to previous generations while calling for strengthened global institutions to govern these powerful systems
Meanwhile, Marc Andreessen's "Techno-Optimist Manifesto" boldly declares AI as a universal problem solver, going so far as to assert that any delay in AI development equates to preventable deaths while painting an ambitious future of humanity expanding to 50 billion people across multiple planets.
6-Project 2025/AGI 2025
Trump
Project 2025, spearheaded by the Heritage Foundation, represents an ambitious conservative blueprint designed to fundamentally transform the federal government and American society starting in January 2025. The initiative is built on four key pillars: a comprehensive policy agenda derived from the Heritage Foundation's "Mandate for Leadership," a database for recruiting conservative personnel for government positions, a Presidential Administration Academy for training recruits, and a detailed 180-day action plan for immediate implementation. The project proposes dramatic changes, including dismantling the Department of Homeland Security, abolishing the Department of Education, reducing the independence of various federal agencies, and implementing significant economic reforms such as moving from income tax to consumption tax.
While former President Trump has publicly maintained distance from Project 2025, stating he hasn't read it, the initiative aligns significantly with many of his stated policy objectives, particularly regarding immigration restrictions, environmental deregulation, and education reform. The implementation strategy envisions a systematic transformation beginning January 20, 2025, starting with immediate executive actions in the first 180 days, followed by strategic placement of pre-vetted conservatives throughout government agencies, and gradual reorganization of federal departments. The plan includes rolling back environmental regulations, eliminating diversity initiatives, restricting abortion access, and implementing stricter immigration controls, making it one of the most comprehensive attempts to reshape American governance through executive action and administrative reform.
AI
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) represents a theoretical form of AI that can match or exceed human-level intelligence across any cognitive task, demonstrating the ability to learn, adapt, and solve problems it wasn't specifically trained for
Unlike current narrow AI systems that excel at specific tasks, AGI would possess human-like cognitive abilities, including creativity, sensory perception, and natural language understanding
Recent predictions about AGI's arrival have generated significant debate. Elon Musk has expressed excitement about AGI potentially arriving in 2025, while Ray Kurzweil maintains his long-held prediction of 2029. Notably, Shane Legg, Google DeepMind's chief AGI scientist, estimates a 50% chance of AGI by 2028.
The economic and societal implications of AGI would be profound. Economic models suggest that AGI could lead to unprecedented productivity gains but also cause significant labor market disruption. Wages could plummet as machines become capable of replacing human labor across virtually all sectors, potentially requiring fundamental changes to our economic systems and social safety nets
The technology could revolutionize healthcare, education, scientific research, and creative fields while also raising crucial questions about income distribution and social stability
The path toward AGI, even in its early stages, is already showing significant impacts. . This progression suggests that even before reaching full AGI, intermediate advances could dramatically transform various industry.
And, of course, we are likely to see a further acceleration (if that is possible) under the Trump administration. The Washington Post reported in July that the America First Policy Institute had drafted a potential replacement to Biden’s executive order that would establish a “Manhatten Project” for AI, while simultaneously addressing “unnecessary and burdensome regulations.”
Implementation & Arrival
There is, of course, uncertainty in both the timeline of Project 2025 implementation and AGI arrival, though there will be significant impacts from both before they are complete.
The implementation challenges facing Project 2025 are substantial and multi-layered. At the federal level, most major proposals would require significant congressional cooperation, including a 60-vote Senate majority to overcome filibusters - a steep hurdle even with Republican control, as several Democratic votes would be needed for controversial proposals. Many programs, such as Title I education funding, are permanently authorized and would require new legislation to modify, making substantial changes unlikely in the current political climate.
The state-level implementation presents its own set of complex challenges. Notably, several proposals would disproportionately impact conservative rural areas, potentially generating resistance from Republican representatives. For instance, the plan to phase out Title I educational funding would particularly affect red states that are already among the lowest education spenders. The initiative is already facing growing opposition across party lines as public awareness increases. Implementation is further complicated by state-level resistance, with some proposals already being challenged through legislative bans, funding restrictions, and court injunctions.
AGI’s arrival faces many technical hurdles.
But, as I’ve repeatedly noted, many AI technologies will be very disruptive even without AGI.
Aggravation
The convergence of Project 2025's proposed dismantling of federal social safety nets with the rapid advancement of AGI presents an unprecedented risk of societal destabilization. Project 2025's plans to eliminate crucial support programs like the Earned Income Tax Credit, which currently keeps 23 million Americans out of poverty, while simultaneously reducing education funding, cutting Medicare and Medicaid, and eliminating most tax credits and deductions for low and middle-income households would create immediate economic vulnerability for nearly 100 million Americans who depend directly or indirectly on these programs.
This economic destabilization would coincide with the emergence of increasingly capable AI systems that are already poised to disrupt traditional employment patterns, potentially leading to rapid job displacement across multiple sectors before retraining programs or alternative employment opportunities can be established. The combination of reduced social protections and AI-driven job displacement could be further exacerbated by Project 2025's proposed elimination of diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives and its aggressive immigration enforcement policies
As AI systems become more sophisticated in their ability to manipulate social discourse and generate misinformation, there's a significant risk of increased social fragmentation and political instability
The project's planned consolidation of executive power, coupled with AI's enhanced surveillance and social control capabilities, could create conditions for what experts warn might become an "irreversible totalitarian regime."
On the flip side, perhaps the combination will usher in utopia. The emergence of AGI, combined with Project 2025's vision of streamlined government, could usher in an unprecedented era of efficient governance and technological advancement. The proposed dismantling of bureaucratic structures could allow for the rapid integration of AI systems into government operations, potentially creating a more responsive and cost-effective administration.
Project 2025's emphasis on reducing regulatory barriers, combined with AGI's problem-solving capabilities, could accelerate technological innovation and economic growth, particularly in sectors like energy development, nuclear power, and private sector expansion. This synergy could lead to dramatic improvements in service delivery while significantly reducing government overhead, potentially allowing for both lower taxes and more efficient resource allocation.
The marriage of AGI capabilities with Project 2025's vision of decentralized governance could revolutionize how society functions, shifting power from bureaucratic institutions to more dynamic, AI-enhanced local and private sector solutions. AGI could optimize the implementation of Project 2025's proposed market-based approaches to healthcare, education, and social services, potentially creating more efficient systems that reduce costs while improving outcomes.
The technology could help manage the transition to state-level control of various programs, using data-driven insights to ensure optimal resource distribution and program effectiveness. This combination could create a more streamlined, efficient society where technological innovation and reduced government intervention work together to enhance individual liberty and economic prosperity, while AGI systems ensure the smooth operation of essential services with minimal human oversight.
Where will human values take us?
Conclusion
The relationship between rapid societal change and conflict emerges as a consistent pattern throughout history, with economic and structural impacts playing a pivotal role in social upheaval. Research demonstrates that major, sudden, or unexpected changes typically generate the most significant conflicts, particularly when these transformations affect resource distribution or existing power structures.
The Modern Industrialization Period in America (1840-1875) serves as a compelling example of how rapid transformation can generate multiple sources of conflict. During this era, the fundamental shift from an agrarian to an industrial economy created widespread economic dislocations and exacerbated social class tensions. The period witnessed unprecedented regional economic divergence, intensified resource competition, and significant population displacement. These changes profoundly impacted the relationship between the North and South, ultimately contributing to the tensions that led to the Civil War.
The historical record suggests that while change itself isn't inherently destructive, the velocity and scope of transformation often determine its potential for generating conflict. When multiple factors converge—such as rapid economic restructuring, power centralization, power redistribution, changes in norms, the redefinition of what it means to be human, and the identification of God-like leaders with a mandate to create a new world—the likelihood of conflict increases significantly. This is independent of whether or not any of the changes are good or bad.
__
Should we start talking with students about this, or should we leave that to TikTok?