David Borish is Right: Education in 2026, 2029, 2034
Yesterday, David Borish wrote a brief blog post about what education will look like in 2026, 2029, 2034. Looking at trends in technology and education, I think he’s almost entirely correct. I’d only add a few things.
I think this all could happen much faster — 2025, 2027, 2030.; we are already seeing some of 2026 in 2024-5 (see my post from yesterday).
It’s not all or nothing. Many students will learn in the way he describes in these years. All students may not, but a very large number will.
These predictions in no way depend on school systems embracing these technologies. A majority of families will be able to afford the educational technologies he suggests we will be using 2034. As a rough estimate, imagine the average price of the top 10% of k-12 private schools was $500-$1000/year and there were no enrollment limits. That would transform the entire K-12 education system. I see it here coming in at similar prices.
I do wonder if this thinking even underestimates the change we will see in 2030-2040. Most educational futurism research still imagines education as a separate place/entity where students go to learn. Imagine instead that learning was inextricably intertwined with our everyday interactions, integrated and delivered in our glasses/contact lenses, imparted to us in video games and children’s cartoons, overlayed onto our toys and childhood adventures. As adults (and following his theme of lifelong learning), it would continue in our everyday “work” and social interactions. If I had the resources to invest in an education start-up, I’d like for one that integrated learning into our everyday lives.
Anyhow, from David…(full post)
The Next 2 Years (2026):
By 2026, we can expect to see the widespread adoption of AI teaching assistants in both traditional and online classrooms. These AI tutors, similar to the one Karpathy envisions for his LLM101n course, will provide personalized support to students, answering questions and offering explanations tailored to each learner's pace and style. Traditional textbooks will begin to be replaced by interactive, AI-powered learning materials that adapt in real-time to a student's progress.
Schools will start experimenting with "flipped classroom" models on a larger scale, where students engage with AI-guided content at home and use in-person time for collaborative projects and discussions facilitated by human teachers. This period will also see the rise of specialized AI courses, teaching students not just how to use AI tools, but how to understand and even create them.
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The Next 5 Years (2029):
As we approach 2029, the line between physical and virtual learning environments will blur significantly. Virtual and augmented reality technologies, powered by AI, will create immersive learning experiences that were once unimaginable. Students might take virtual field trips to ancient civilizations or explore the human body from the inside, guided by AI tutors with deep subject expertise.
The role of human teachers will evolve, focusing more on emotional intelligence, creativity, and complex problem-solving skills that AI cannot replicate. Curriculum design will become more flexible and personalized, with AI systems suggesting learning pathways based on each student's interests, strengths, and career aspirations.
Assessments will move away from traditional exams towards continuous evaluation through AI-monitored project work and practical applications of knowledge.
The Next 10 Years (2034):
By 2034, we may see the emergence of fully AI-native schools, where the entire learning experience is orchestrated by advanced AI systems. These schools could exist primarily in the digital realm, with physical spaces serving as hubs for social interaction, hands-on experiments, and collaborative projects.
The concept of fixed grade levels may become obsolete, replaced by skill-based progression across various subjects. Students might seamlessly move between topics and difficulty levels, guided by AI that understands their learning patterns and goals better than any human could.
Lifelong learning will become the norm, with AI tutors accompanying individuals throughout their lives, helping them acquire new skills and knowledge as needed for personal growth or career transitions.
I’m 100% convinced this all will happen.
Will schools respond? To the estimated 50-75% of families that can afford this, that may not matter that much. But it will matter to the 25-50% that can’t. And how schools respond will matter to the 75%+ of families that don’t understand the significance of these emerging technologies. Beyond providing access, our taxpayer-funded “community schools” need to start educating the community, as the Orange County Department of Education, for example, has started doing.
