10 Overlapping Challenges Facing the World

AGI, Autonomous Weapons, Surveillance, Presidential Power, Great Power Conflict, Inequality, Right Politics, Refugee Flows, Climate Change

The emergence of an “AGI-Like” (Mollick) world. When will this happen? Metaculas betting markets put it at 2032. Hinton and Marcus both say 5-20 years. Early predictions are for 2027. Ray Kurzweil insists 2029 is still accurate.

We probably aren’t far from a world of human-level intelligence.

This will be disruptive (to say the least) to the economy, especially to education and health care.

Autonomous Weapons. Weapons are becoming fully autonomous, enabling them to make their own decisions to kill. Some hope to retain the “human in the loop (HITL)” as the final decision-maker, but this will not hold because humans won’t be able to react to the same data load and make decisions as quickly. A HITL would lose battles to fully autonomous systems.

Surveillance. Much is written about the massive expansion of AI-enabled surveillance and the potential for China to market and back this technology globally in a way that threatens democracy. But the US government is already massive expanding surveillance and even purchasing out data for law enforcement purposes.

Unlimited Presidential power. According to Trump vs the US, the “President may not be prosecuted for exercising his core constitutional powers, and he is entitled to at least presumptive immunity from prosecution for his official acts.” Justice Sotomayor says this makes the President a “king.” This power + surveillance + AGI/autonomous weapons mean the President is now the most powerful king in the history of the world.

Democracy is only 200 years old.

Regrowth of nationalism. Recent years have seen a significant rise in far-right politics, defensive nationalism, and persistent racism across many countries, contributing to increased global tensions. Far-right parties, such as France's National Rally, have gained substantial ground in elections, promoting nationalist and anti-immigration rhetoric. This trend is accompanied by a surge in "defensive nationalism," characterized by populist movements focused on protecting national interests against perceived threats from globalization. Many democracies are experiencing heightened polarization, with nationalism becoming a potent form of identity politics. Despite some progress, racial disparities persist in various sectors, fueling societal tensions and nationalist sentiments.

These developments are furthering the seeds of global conflict in several ways. The "my-nation-first" ideology promoted by many far-right parties can lead to decreased international cooperation and increased tensions between nations. Nationalist movements often view international organizations with suspicion, potentially weakening global governance structures that help maintain peace. The emphasis on national identity can lead to increased discrimination against minorities and immigrants, potentially causing internal conflicts that could spill over borders. Additionally, protectionist policies associated with nationalist movements can lead to trade wars and economic tensions. The rise of competing nationalist ideologies could result in a more fractured global order, increasing the risk of conflicts based on ideological differences. Addressing these issues will require concerted efforts at both national and international levels to promote inclusivity, combat discrimination, and foster global cooperation.

Potential for global conflict. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 represents one of the largest military operations in Europe since World War II and profoundly impacts the international order. This conflict has heightened tensions globally, particularly between major powers like the US, Russia, and China, and arguably makes global conflict likely. It has raised concerns about potential threats to other parts of Europe, especially former Soviet states and Eastern European nations, leading to increased NATO presence in these regions. The situation has also drawn parallels with China's stance towards Taiwan and numerous commentators believe a Chinese move on Taiwan is possible. The invasion has led to a more polarized global landscape, with countries feeling pressured to align with either the US-led Western bloc or a potential China-Russia axis. While the risk of direct military conflict between nuclear-armed nations remains low, the potential for proxy conflicts, cyberwarfare, and economic warfare has increased. This could escalate. This has resulted in elevated defense spending and military preparedness worldwide, reshaping international relations and security dynamics on a global scale, and increasing war risks.

This conflict not only increases the risks of regional war and great power war, but it makes collaboration on existential global problems nearly impossible.

Inequality. AI is increasing inequality in many ways. In education, AI-powered tutoring systems and personalized learning platforms are often only accessible to wealthy students who access these systems on non-school computers and learn how to use them in academic summer programs, giving them an additional advantage at school while they use them undetected to improve their schoolwork.

In the job market, AI automation is displacing many low and middle-skill workers, such as designers and translators, while creating high-paying jobs for AI specialists and engineers - roles that typically require advanced degrees. Companies leveraging AI can rapidly scale and dominate markets, concentrating wealth among fewer players.

The convergent technologies of the next two decades will create enormous prosperity and material abundance around the world. But these same forces will also unsettle the global economy, forcing society to adapt at an unprecedented pace.
Kurzweil, Ray. The Singularity Is Nearer (p. 195). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.

Inequality is a strong predictor of conflict in a society.

Refugee flows. Inequality serves as a significant driver of refugee flows, with economic and political disparities pushing people to migrate from poorer to wealthier nations. However, this movement of people often creates a complex cycle of further problems. Large influxes of refugees can strain resources and social services in host countries, particularly in developing nations that already struggle with poverty. This can exacerbate existing economic challenges and lead to increased poverty among both local and refugee populations. Furthermore, the arrival of refugees frequently triggers xenophobic attitudes and racist violence in host countries, especially when portrayed negatively by media and politicians. On a broader scale, refugee flows can create geopolitical tensions between origin and destination countries, potentially leading to diplomatic disputes or even militarized conflicts. The unequal distribution of refugee hosting responsibilities also creates friction between nations, with wealthier countries often criticized for not taking their "fair share" of refugees. This interconnected web of issues highlights how inequality-driven refugee flows can ultimately contribute to a cycle of poverty, racism, and geopolitical conflict, underscoring the need for comprehensive global solutions.

Blurring of the digital and the “real.” The proliferation of deepfake technology and the resulting blurring of digital and "real" content poses significant risks for societal conflict, global tensions, and new forms of tyranny and oppression. On a societal level, deepfakes can be weaponized to create convincing false narratives that inflame social tensions, manipulate political discourse, and erode trust in media and institutions. Globally, this technology could spark diplomatic incidents through fabricated videos of world leaders, enable military deception, and facilitate information warfare between nations. Authoritarian regimes and bad actors could leverage deepfakes to consolidate power by silencing dissent, spreading propaganda, and engaging in surveillance and blackmail. As people become increasingly skeptical of all media due to the prevalence of deepfakes, it could undermine social cohesion and shared reality. The ability to create convincing false evidence could be used to discredit or prosecute opposition figures and activists, while the threat of fabricated compromising content could be used to control individuals or groups. As this technology continues to advance, its potential for harm in exacerbating conflicts and enabling oppression becomes increasingly concerning.

Climate change. Climate change, regardless of its origin, acts as a powerful catalyst for global instability, exacerbating a range of interconnected issues. It disproportionately affects the world's most vulnerable populations, intensifying poverty and widening existing inequalities. As rising temperatures and extreme weather events render certain areas uninhabitable, they trigger large-scale displacements, creating waves of climate refugees who often lack legal protections. Simultaneously, climate change disrupts agricultural systems and food production, leading to increased famine and food insecurity. These pressures on resources and livelihoods can spark conflicts within and between nations, particularly in regions already grappling with scarcity. The compounding nature of these problems creates a vicious cycle, where each issue amplifies the others, with climate change serving as an accelerant. For instance, climate-induced migration can strain resources in host communities, potentially igniting new conflicts, which in turn may lead to further displacement and poverty. This complex web of challenges underscores the urgent need for comprehensive global action to mitigate climate change, adapt to its impacts, and address the underlying inequalities that make certain populations more vulnerable to its effects.

These interrelated challenges create a volatile mix that could accelerate global instability. The rapid development of AGI and autonomous weapons, combined with rising inequality and nationalism, creates conditions ripe for conflict. Climate change and refugee flows add further pressure. Meanwhile, expanding surveillance and the blurring of reality through AI make it harder for societies to build trust and find common ground, with some using it to stoke the flames of difference.

The world we are leaving the younger generations with isn’t great. Hopefully, they can do better than us.

Can they use AGI to augment their intelligence and save themselves from us?

Will they fight to redistribute the wealth?

Will they try to get off the rock?

Will they prefer to hang out in virtual worlds?

Will they send a copy of their digital selves to meetings?

Will they want to live to be 200?

What do you think they are wondering?